What Russia seeks by launching a military escalation against certain European countries

In recent hours, alarm has grown in European countries over the possibility of military aggression by Russia.

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Russia's acts of hybrid warfare in European countries

Russia has been carrying out a wave of sabotage against European countries for some time. Recall, for instance, the acts of sabotage on Polish railway lines in 2025. These actions have escalated, involving serious incidents such as the drone attack on Leipzig Airport in Germany in early August 2026—an attack the German government attributed to Russia, describing it as an act of hybrid warfare. Such acts rely on covert operations to sow instability in the targeted country without a formal declaration of war.

A strategy to generate instability and favor pro-Russian parties

Russia seeks to generate this instability to weaken European countries and cause them to halt their aid to Ukraine. This strategy aims to foster criticism of such aid within the targeted nations and promote the rise of political factions that advocate for ending it. In Germany, this strategy is meeting with some success, given the rise of pro-Russian parties like the AfD and BSW, which advocate for lifting sanctions on Russia, halting German military aid to Ukraine, and resuming Russian gas imports. However, these parties remain far from gaining power in the country. The same applies to pro-Russian parties in other European nations. Meanwhile, the attack in Leipzig has backfired on Russia, sparking a wave of support for Germany from other European countries—including Slovakia's pro-Russian president, Peter Pellegrini, who on September 2 expressed his "full solidarity with Germany following the Russian hybrid attack in Leipzig."

Russia may be considering limited attacks on specific locations

Given the disastrous outcome of the invasion of Ukraine for Russia, Putin cannot contemplate an all-out war against European NATO countries. If Ukraine alone has managed to withstand the Russian war machine for four and a half years—inflicting heavy losses in both troops and equipment—the combined armies of NATO could place Russia in serious trouble, especially considering that these forces have not suffered the severe attrition the Russian army has endured during its aggression against Ukraine. This would limit Russia to small-scale actions in specific locations—such as the Suwalki Gap, the island of Gotland, or the city of Narva (which has a Russian-speaking majority). I already discussed here yesterday the joint Russian-Belarusian military maneuvers taking place this week near the Suwalki Gap, which have almost certainly raised alarms among many European governments.

A strategy to sow disunity and weakness within NATO

Many wonder what sense there is in Russia starting a new war, given that such a move could trigger conventional military aggression against a NATO member state—such as Poland or Lithuania (regarding the Suwalki Gap), Sweden (regarding Gotland), or Estonia (regarding Narva). First, it must be noted that Putin’s current concentration of power in Russia is only sustainable within a state of permanent war. The Russian public is already weary of the invasion of Ukraine and the heavy casualties it has inflicted on the invading army. Putin continues to play the nationalist card to maintain domestic support, and official Russian media outlets have long been stoking the prospect of war with NATO, portraying the Alliance as the aggressor—employing the same cynical Kremlin narrative used to blame Ukraine for the Russian invasion itself.

Furthermore, by limiting action to specific locations, Putin would aim to sow division within NATO. His propaganda networks in the West have spent years promoting the idea that the war in Ukraine is "not our fight," and pro-Russian voices across Europe would quickly stir up opposition to any military response against such a hostile Russian move. They would accuse European leaders of seeking a pretext for war with Russia—even though it was Russia that launched the attack. This mirrors the same cynical rhetoric pro-Russian propagandists have employed regarding Ukraine. Let us recall that in 2021 and early 2022, these propagandists tried to convince us that the idea of ​​Russia wanting to invade Ukraine was absurd, claiming the whole situation was merely a provocation by NATO countries. Finally, when the Russian invasion began, those same propagandists blamed NATO for having "provoked" it, employing the old "miniskirt" argument—the idea that a rape victim is to blame for the assault because she "provoked" her attacker.

The ultimate goal of Putin's escalation: halting European aid to Ukraine

At the heart of this entire strategy lies Ukraine and the successful wave of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil assets, which has placed Russia in a very precarious position regarding energy. Kyiv has backed Moscow into a corner by bringing the war onto its soil—a legitimate strategy, given that the conflict was initiated by Russia through an unprovoked invasion. Putin's ultimate aim with such a potential hostile action against NATO is to force Europe to stop aiding Ukraine and to pressure the country into surrendering, given Russia's inability to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the past four and a half years.

Pro-Russian propaganda networks and their role in that strategy

As usual, Russian propagandists spice up this escalation by reminding us that Russia possesses nuclear weapons and using this fact to argue that it is therefore impossible for Russia to lose a war. The reality is that the USSR held that same nuclear arsenal when it was defeated in Afghanistan in 1989, and Russia has continued to possess it while its invasion of Ukraine has resulted in hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers. Putin knows he cannot launch a nuclear attack because the Western response would be immediate: Russia is not the only nation with nuclear weapons, and their use by the Russians would lead to a situation of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)—a war in which everyone would lose, including Putin. That is why Russia has to resort to this escalation.

Obviously, if Europe does not want to become enslaved by a bully like Putin, it must show strength and unity at a time like this, and make it clear that any military action against a member state will be considered an act of aggression against all countries in the Alliance—which is exactly what Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulates. Displaying weakness and division would play into Putin's hands, and that is precisely the response pro-Russian propagandists are promoting in the West, attempting to convince us using the same fear-mongering messages they have been spreading in recent years to discourage us from helping Ukraine; they try to make us believe that if we do not act like cowards and yield to Putin, it will mean the Apocalypse because Putin will get angry and fire his entire nuclear arsenal. If history has proven anything so far, it is that one cannot show weakness to bullies, as doing so only emboldens them. Europe will only be able to free itself from the Russian threat by standing up to it and demonstrating strength. Anything else amounts to increasingly undisguised attempts to ensure Russia wins and ultimately turns all of Europe into a Russian protectorate.

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Image: Grok.