The disaster of the Russian reinforcements sent to stop the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk

@DefAviation ES 8·09·2024 · 21:50 0

Today marks the fourth day of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region that began on Tuesday, and bad news is piling up for Russia.

New Russian terrorist attack causes massacre of civilians in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine
The data we know about the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk region

Once again, Russia has been overconfident. First, by underestimating the Ukrainian forces used in this counteroffensive in Kursk and believing that FSB border units would be enough to stop them. And second, by openly showing the sending of reinforcements towards Kursk, through easily identifiable places, which have been disseminated by the Russian media itself for propaganda purposes. In any war, information is a very valuable asset, and with the images and videos of the reinforcements, Russia provided very valuable information to the Ukrainian forces.

A Russian reinforcement column was moving through the village of Oktyabrskoye last night, 30 km from the border and 20 km from Korenevo, where Ukrainian forces had arrived on Wednesday. The column consisted of dozens of vehicles, mostly trucks, and hundreds of soldiers. This morning, a Russian Telegram channel reported that the convoy had been attacked by the Ukrainians, allegedly using HIMARS missile launchers.

This morning, Belarusian opposition outlet Nexta published this video of the burning Russian column in Oktyabrskoye. Nexta was able to geolocate the location of the attack thanks to the buildings visible in the video. The attack occurred on the E38 highway east of Rylsk.

❗️ A Russian Armed Forces military column has been destroyed at night near the village of Oktyabrskoye in the Rylsky district of Kursk region, Russian and Ukrainian media claim. pic.twitter.com/5ljjV9IzgP

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 9, 2024

At 09:51 CET, Nexta published a video that was allegedly recorded by a Russian civilian showing the vehicles destroyed in the Ukrainian attack on a Russian convoy. "Each of these trucks can carry up to 35 fully equipped military personnel. The video shows 14 destroyed vehicles, suggesting that the Russian army could have lost up to 490 soldiers in a single night in the strike. This could be one of the largest single losses for the Russian army since the start of a full-scale war", Nexta notes.

‼️ BREAKING: Russia may have lost up to half a thousand soldiers in a night strike

A morning video of a destroyed Russian military convoy in the Kursk region has appeared online. The footage shows burnt-out trucks with the bodies of dozens of Russian soldiers scattered among… pic.twitter.com/954cCN3D04

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 9, 2024

At 17:56 CET, Nexta has published a video recorded during the attack by the Khorne Group, a surveillance and target acquisition battery of the Field Artillery Regiment of the 116th Independent Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. Nexta has geolocated the video in the Russian town of Oktyabrskoye (the exact location can be seen here). In the video, we see the Russian column surprised by several explosions. The Russian soldiers flee in different directions, trying to get to safety:

‼️ BREAKING: Video of the destruction of a convoy with hundreds of Russian soldiers in the #Kursk region

Our editorial staff confirms the authenticity of this video. We compared the place where the destroyed convoy with #Russian military personnel was found with the frames in… pic.twitter.com/S88zrxz9o0

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 9, 2024

Regarding this video, Nexta states: "We were able to count at least 22 transport trucks. Taking into account that each transport truck holds an average of 35 fully equipped military personnel, we can estimate that at the time of the strike there were up to 770 military personnel in this location."

This afternoon at 17:03 CET, the Khorne Group has thanked a Russian media outlet for the images it has been publishing of the reinforcements sent by Russia to Kursk, showing easily geolocable locations: "Our best forward observers are news reporters from “Zvezda” channel. Great thanks to them for great job!", this surveillance and target acquisition battery of the Ukrainian Army states with irony.

Meanwhile, as they advance deep into Russia, Ukrainian forces are taking large numbers of Russian troops as prisoners of war. Today at 17:21 CET, Noel Reports published this video showing Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainians in the Kursk region: "Several hundreds have already been taken prisoner during the 4-day operation," the source said.

Captive Russian soldiers, Kursk region. Several hundreds have already been taken prisoner during the 4-day operation. pic.twitter.com/ZlkuaExshv

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 9, 2024

There is more bad news for the Kremlin. This morning at 09:03 CET, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported a successful attack on the Russian airfield at Lipetsk, in the Lipetsk region, east of Kursk: "During the attack, warehouses with guided aerial bombs and other objects in the vicinity of the airport were targeted. Several ignition sources were recorded, a strong fire broke out, and multiple explosions were observed. It is known that Su-34, Su-35, and MiG-31 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are based at the Lipetsk airfield. The results of the damage are being clarified."

This afternoon, Radio Free Europe's Cxemu group published these images of the Russian airfield in Lipetsk. They were taken by Planet Labs. The image above is from July 13, and the one below is from today, after the Ukrainian attack (click on the images to see a larger view). "According to the images, some facilities at the airfield, which could have been used as warehouses, were completely destroyed and a large fire was probably raging on the territory. Two craters are also visible on the ground, which could be the result of the impact of missiles or drones used by the armed forces for the attacks", Cxemu notes.

Finally, today at 05:31 CET, the Institute for the Study of War published this map showing the extent of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region on August 8 at 15:00 CET:

"Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however", the Institute for the Study of War notes.

This bad news for Russia would explain this morning's cowardly Russian attack on Ukrainian civilian targets in Kostiantynivka, an attack with which, once again, Russia is trying to compensate for its military failures by committing war crimes against civilians.

+ UPDATED 10.8.2024 17:33h: Russian news service Kommersan has released these photos of the Russian convoy attacked by Ukrainian forces in Oktyabrskoye: