The data we know about the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk region

@DefAviation ES 8·07·2024 · 20:48 0

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has taken an unexpected turn in recent hours with a Ukrainian counteroffensive on Russian territory.

The Ukrainian Air Force shows off its F-16 fighters, revealing some details
The additions that the Ukrainian Army is putting on its Abrams tanks

The counteroffensive has been launched at several points on the border between Ukraine and Russia, specifically in the Russian region of Kursk. OSINT Technical has indicated that Ukrainian forces have penetrated up to 20 km into Russian territory. That is, in 24 hours (since the counteroffensive began on Tuesday), the Ukrainians have been able to advance further distance than the Russians were able to advance in months in several Ukrainian towns, such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The consequences of this counteroffensive are not only known from Ukrainian sources. The Russian Telegram channel Rybar, with 1.2 million followers, acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have occupied the villages of Leonidovo and Lyubimovka, adding: "At the same time, Russian troops attempted a counterattack in the direction of the nearby village of Zeleny Shlyakh, but failed to liberate the village." The Russian channel also notes: "One of the Ukrainian armored groups, consisting of several units of equipment, conducted active reconnaissance along the Rylsk-Sudzha highway and managed to reach the outskirts of the workers' village of Korenevo, located about 30 km south-east of Rylsk." Korenevo is 25 km from the border with Ukraine.

The Russian source said that Ukrainian forces have launched several attacks and are having success: "On the second day of the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region, the situation remains difficult: the enemy's long preparations for the attack, unfortunately, have borne fruit. Enemy engineering teams are being sent to the areas of Russian territory occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to equip defensive fortifications." The Russian channel has published this complete map showing Ukrainian advances at different points along the border:

To top off the humiliation, this video has been released showing the surrender of dozens of Russian soldiers to Ukrainian forces in Kursk. These soldiers have already been taken as prisoners to Ukrainian territory:

Additional footages of a group of Russian POWs in the Kursk region https://t.co/A7d1zknnBN https://t.co/glF9wqvdbo pic.twitter.com/IvMXXcrMlI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 7, 2024

In addition, Igor Sushko has noted that new Ukrainian F-16s are suspected of being involved in this counteroffensive and could be responsible for the downing of two Russian Kamov Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters in the Kursk region. Recall that the first Ukrainian F-16s were publicly presented two days before the start of this offensive. Thanks to these multi-purpose fighter aircraft, Ukraine can provide air support to its ground forces.

This afternoon, Anton Gerashchenko posted this video with English subtitles, in which we see a report from Valeri Gerasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, via telematics to Vladimir Putin and other members of the Russian state leadership. Gerasimov gives figures of alleged Ukrainian casualties that are not supported by any graphic evidence. Putin's gesture, very serious and with a skeptical attitude, makes clear to what extent he does not find his general's report credible:

Putin met with Belousov, Shoigu, FSB Director Bortnikov, and Gerasimov, to discuss the situation in the Kursk region.

Gerasimov promised all was under control. Putin and the rest looked skeptical. By the way, Putin was once more sitting far away from his subordinates. https://t.co/KF0irzUiL7 pic.twitter.com/Axt42DqdzE

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 7, 2024

What Ukraine is doing is legitimate after being invaded by Russia. During World War II, the Allies did not stop at the German borders or settle for liberating occupied countries. This counteroffensive serves to bring the war to Russian territory, sowing confusion among the invaders and generating insecurity among the Russian civilian population. With this operation, Ukraine humiliates Putin by demonstrating the weakness of Russian defenses and the permeability of its borders.

This Ukrainian counteroffensive is probably not a very ambitious one. It is enough for Ukraine to have penetrated 25 km into Russian territory to score a great goal. In this way, it forces Russia to allocate more military personnel to protect its borders and shows that Putin has not only failed to achieve the objectives he set himself with this invasion, but is also incapable of defending his territory against a Ukrainian army that is much less powerful than the forces of a great power like Russia.

+ UPDATED 8.8.2024 0:55h: Igor Sushko notes that Ukrainian forces have managed to take control of the Sudzha gas metering station in Russia: "Nearly 50% of all Russian gas exports to the European Union flow through this station. It is the only operational Russian gas pipeline supplying the European market."

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Photo: AP. Two F-16 fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force.